When clients enter into new relationships, whether it’s an acquisition made by choice or a relationship forced upon them such as new government a in a publicly regulated industry or an opponent in an adversarial business matter, they need to know who they are dealing with, and what tactics may be most effective.
The Problem
A regulated consumer services company sought our help understanding the politics of their largest market – a big city where their own executives do not have significant presence. Their business is subject to both political pressure and organized opposition. A new mayor is taking office and our client needs to quickly determine where her administration is going to fit into the picture, and whether she’ll take sides against their interests.
Our Solution
First, 221B dug into both social media and press coverage of the new mayor during the campaign cycle that led to her election. We searched for explicit posts and more passive amplification of statements related to the client’s interest. On Twitter, we found a mix of posts specifically supporting positions adverse to our client’s interests and more general support for the lobbying organization aligned against our client. This was an important distinction to inform our client’s decision making. They needed to understand whether the new mayor had steadfast stances on the specific issues at hand, or merely was voicing general support for a group that had supported her candidacy.
We identified press coverage and public records regarding her control of a nonprofit, and whether donors to the organization had received preferential treatment when she held a different political position. We also found a more salient matter that the campaign coverage had largely ignored. More than a decade earlier, the candidate was one of several lawmakers entangled in a bribery investigation related to the award of a concession in a heavily regulated amusement industry. Some elected officials in the group were convicted of taking bribes. While the issue was barely covered in the current campaign press, it was critical to understanding the mayor’s political history. Lastly, our analysis of campaign finance records identified a significant scale of donations from the industry aligned against our client.
The Outcome
221B provided our client with a comprehensive assessment of the new mayor–not just of her stated stances on issues. We showed how she had made decisions over decades, and whether she was likely to change her mind as circumstances changed. We gave the client a sense of how deep some of her political alliances and friendships were, and where she had made serious mistakes over the years that could make her vulnerable.